As of June 21, 2025, TradeDoubler AB's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $9.64 to $110.33 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $110.33 | +1679.5% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $55.06 | +788.0% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $68.17 | +999.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $11.45 | +84.7% |
| Earnings Power Value | $9.64 | +55.4% |
Is TradeDoubler AB (TRAD.ST) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $6.20, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate TradeDoubler AB's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.38 | 0.49 |
| Cost of equity | 5.0% | 7.0% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 26.6% | 39.5% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.27 | 0.27 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.7% | 6.2% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $55 | $3,412M | 94.1% |
| 10-Year Growth | $110 | $6,797M | 88.3% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $18 | $1,140M | 82.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $33 | $2,082M | 61.9% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $34M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 4.7% |
| Enterprise Value | $545M - $716M |
| Net Debt | $40M |
| Equity Value | $504M - $676M |
| Outstanding Shares | 61M |
| Fair Value | $8 - $11 |
| Selected Fair Value | $9.64 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $380M |
| Enterprise Value | $420M |
| Trailing P/E | 50.63 |
| Forward P/E | 12.54 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 4.55 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.27 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $33.10 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $13.76 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $13.63 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $1.72 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.96 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $63.18 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, TradeDoubler AB's weighted average intrinsic value is $63.18, which is approximately 919.0% above the current market price of $6.20.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe TradeDoubler AB is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.