As of June 12, 2025, TradeDoubler AB has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $112.54 per share. With the current market price at $6.10, this represents a potential upside of 1744.9%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $55.89 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $112.54 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 816.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 1744.9% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.5% - 6.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2113 million in 12-2024 to $5130 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.3%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 2113 | 6% |
| 12-2025 | 2241 | 6% |
| 12-2026 | 2479 | 11% |
| 12-2027 | 2839 | 15% |
| 12-2028 | 3129 | 10% |
| 12-2029 | 3381 | 8% |
| 12-2030 | 3670 | 9% |
| 12-2031 | 3989 | 9% |
| 12-2032 | 4375 | 10% |
| 12-2033 | 4789 | 9% |
| 12-2034 | 5130 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 0% in 12-2024 to 6% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | (3) | 0% |
| 12-2025 | 30 | 1% |
| 12-2026 | 61 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 101 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 145 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 192 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 208 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 227 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 249 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 272 | 6% |
| 12-2034 | 291 | 6% |
with a 5-year average of $32 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 36 |
| 12-2026 | 40 |
| 12-2027 | 44 |
| 12-2028 | 49 |
| 12-2029 | 55 |
| 12-2030 | 60 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 90 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 4 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 66 | 9 | 33 | 32 | (6) |
| 2026 | 136 | 23 | 48 | 49 | 16 |
| 2027 | 197 | 38 | 55 | 87 | 18 |
| 2028 | 264 | 55 | 61 | 71 | 77 |
| 2029 | 335 | 72 | 66 | 58 | 140 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 55.89 | 816.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 112.54 | 1744.9% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 19.76 | 223.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 36.02 | 490.5% |
Is TradeDoubler AB (TRAD.ST) a buy or a sell? TradeDoubler AB is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, TradeDoubler AB (TRAD.ST) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 1744.9%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $6.10.