What is TPHS's Intrinsic value?

Trinity Place Holdings Inc (TPHS) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 1, 2025, Trinity Place Holdings Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $10.97 to $10.97 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Earnings Power Value $10.97 +11372.5%

Is Trinity Place Holdings Inc (TPHS) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $0.10, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Trinity Place Holdings Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 1.52 3.95
Cost of equity 10.9% 27.0%
Cost of debt 6.2% 7.0%
Tax rate 1.5% 1.7%
Debt/Equity ratio 85.67 85.67
After-tax WACC 6.1% 7.1%

Valuation Methods

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $22M
Discount Rate (WACC) 7.1% - 6.1%
Enterprise Value $306M - $355M
Net Debt $(1)M
Equity Value $306M - $356M
Outstanding Shares 30M
Fair Value $10 - $12
Selected Fair Value $10.97

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $3M
Enterprise Value $2M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 17.00
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 85.67

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Earnings Power Value 100% $1.10
Weighted Average 100% $10.97

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Trinity Place Holdings Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $10.97, which is approximately 11372.5% above the current market price of $0.10.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-116% to -109% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Trinity Place Holdings Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.