What is TPFG.L's Intrinsic value?

Property Franchise Group PLC (TPFG.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 18, 2025, Property Franchise Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $294.09 to $642.08 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $642.08 +16.7%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $522.93 -4.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $623.52 +13.4%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $440.37 -19.9%
Earnings Power Value $294.09 -46.5%

Is Property Franchise Group PLC (TPFG.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $550.00, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Property Franchise Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.38 0.4
Cost of equity 6.3% 7.8%
Cost of debt 4.6% 98.8%
Tax rate 20.0% 24.4%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.05 0.05
After-tax WACC 6.2% 11.1%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 8.7% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $67 (FY12-2024) to $181 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 15% to 17%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 1% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $523 $324M 76.5%
10-Year Growth $642 $395M 61.4%
5-Year EBITDA $533 $330M 76.9%
10-Year EBITDA $650 $399M 61.9%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 88.4%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 7.0%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0%
  • Fair value: $623.52 (13.4% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 7.8% (Low) to 6.3% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0% (Low) to 4.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $207 to $674
  • Selected fair value: $440.37 (-19.9% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $15M
Discount Rate (WACC) 11.1% - 6.2%
Enterprise Value $134M - $242M
Net Debt $13M
Equity Value $121M - $229M
Outstanding Shares 1M
Fair Value $203 - $385
Selected Fair Value $294.09

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $327M
Enterprise Value $340M
Trailing P/E 32.08
Forward P/E 23.10
Trailing EV/EBITDA 14.05
Current Dividend Yield 277.18%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 101.91%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.05

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $192.63
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $130.73
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $124.70
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $66.06
Earnings Power Value 10% $29.41
Weighted Average 100% $543.53

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Property Franchise Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $543.53, which is approximately 1.2% below the current market price of $550.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (15% to 17% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.05)
  • Historical dividend growth of 101.91%

Given these factors, we believe Property Franchise Group PLC is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.