What is TPEIR.AT's Intrinsic value?

Piraeus Financial Holdings SA (TPEIR.AT) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 12, 2025, Piraeus Financial Holdings SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $4.77 to $6.38 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $4.77 -15.6%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $6.38 +13.0%

Is Piraeus Financial Holdings SA (TPEIR.AT) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $5.65, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Piraeus Financial Holdings SA's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.3% 3.8%
Equity market risk premium 8.8% 9.8%
Adjusted beta 0.87 1.11
Cost of equity 10.9% 15.2%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 19.7% 24.6%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.66 0.66
After-tax WACC 8.2% 10.7%

Valuation Methods

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 13.1%
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0%
  • Fair value: $4.77 (-15.6% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 15.2% (Low) to 10.9% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5% (Low) to 1.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $4 to $9
  • Selected fair value: $6.38 (13.0% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $7060M
Enterprise Value $13150M
Trailing P/E 6.32
Forward P/E 6.56
Trailing EV/EBITDA 0.00
Current Dividend Yield 10.29%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.66

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 57% $0.95
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 43% $0.96
Weighted Average 100% $5.46

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Piraeus Financial Holdings SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $5.46, which is approximately 3.3% below the current market price of $5.65.

Key investment considerations:

  • Overall financial health and market position

Given these factors, we believe Piraeus Financial Holdings SA is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.