As of June 20, 2025, Spin Master Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $40.50 per share. With the current market price at $23.51, this represents a potential upside of 72.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $35.95 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $40.50 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 52.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 72.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.9% - 8.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2263 million in 12-2024 to $3149 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.4%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 2263 | 19% |
| 12-2025 | 2375 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 2493 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 2543 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 2660 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 2713 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 2767 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 2835 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 2940 | 4% |
| 12-2033 | 3049 | 4% |
| 12-2034 | 3149 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 4% in 12-2024 to 7% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 82 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 111 | 5% |
| 12-2026 | 134 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 154 | 6% |
| 12-2028 | 179 | 7% |
| 12-2029 | 200 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 204 | 7% |
| 12-2031 | 209 | 7% |
| 12-2032 | 217 | 7% |
| 12-2033 | 225 | 7% |
| 12-2034 | 232 | 7% |
with a 5-year average of $97 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 5% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 104 |
| 12-2026 | 113 |
| 12-2027 | 119 |
| 12-2028 | 123 |
| 12-2029 | 127 |
| 12-2030 | 131 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 72 |
| Days Inventory | 49 |
| Days Payables | 72 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 217 | 27 | 88 | (47) | 148 |
| 2026 | 330 | 44 | 124 | 53 | 109 |
| 2027 | 363 | 51 | 126 | 20 | 166 |
| 2028 | 403 | 59 | 132 | 6 | 206 |
| 2029 | 435 | 66 | 135 | 20 | 215 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 35.95 | 52.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 40.50 | 72.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 34.47 | 46.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 38.73 | 64.8% |
Is Spin Master Corp (TOY.TO) a buy or a sell? Spin Master Corp is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Spin Master Corp (TOY.TO) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 72.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $23.51.