As of June 19, 2025, Total Energy Services Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $15.63 to $45.65 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $23.49 | +105.2% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $21.10 | +84.2% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $15.63 | +36.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $20.13 | +75.8% |
| Earnings Power Value | $45.65 | +298.7% |
Is Total Energy Services Inc (TOT.TO) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $11.45, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Total Energy Services Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.02 | 1.18 |
| Cost of equity | 8.4% | 11.4% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 7.0% |
| Tax rate | 24.0% | 33.6% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.31 | 0.31 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.1% | 9.8% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $21 | $851M | 74.3% |
| 10-Year Growth | $23 | $941M | 56.4% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $20 | $816M | 73.2% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $22 | $901M | 54.4% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $146M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.8% - 7.1% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,492M - $2,050M |
| Net Debt | $61M |
| Equity Value | $1,431M - $1,990M |
| Outstanding Shares | 37M |
| Fair Value | $38 - $53 |
| Selected Fair Value | $45.65 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $429M |
| Enterprise Value | $490M |
| Trailing P/E | 6.67 |
| Forward P/E | 7.42 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 4.90 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 339.34% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 50.20% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.31 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $7.05 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $5.27 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $3.13 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $3.02 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $4.56 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $23.03 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Total Energy Services Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $23.03, which is approximately 101.2% above the current market price of $11.45.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Total Energy Services Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.