As of May 28, 2025, Tinley Beverage Company Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.02, this represents a potential upside of -72743.7%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -22682.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -72743.7% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.5% - 6.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2 million in 12-2023 to $30 million by 12-2033, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 31.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 2 | 61% |
| 12-2024 | 1 | -59% |
| 12-2025 | 2 | 71% |
| 12-2026 | 3 | 69% |
| 12-2027 | 4 | 53% |
| 12-2028 | 6 | 50% |
| 12-2029 | 9 | 44% |
| 12-2030 | 13 | 40% |
| 12-2031 | 17 | 33% |
| 12-2032 | 23 | 34% |
| 12-2033 | 30 | 30% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -209% in 12-2023 to -142% by 12-2033, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2023 | (5) | -209% |
| 12-2024 | (1) | -146% |
| 12-2025 | (2) | -149% |
| 12-2026 | (4) | -147% |
| 12-2027 | (6) | -145% |
| 12-2028 | (9) | -144% |
| 12-2029 | (13) | -143% |
| 12-2030 | (18) | -143% |
| 12-2031 | (25) | -143% |
| 12-2032 | (33) | -142% |
| 12-2033 | (42) | -142% |
with a 5-year average of $1 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1364% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 3 |
| 12-2025 | 7 |
| 12-2026 | 15 |
| 12-2027 | 26 |
| 12-2028 | 44 |
| 12-2029 | 66 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 21 |
| Days Inventory | 206 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2024 | 0 | (0) | 3 | 0 | (3) |
| 2025 | 4 | (1) | 23 | 0 | (18) |
| 2026 | 10 | (1) | 38 | 0 | (27) |
| 2027 | 19 | (2) | 58 | 0 | (38) |
| 2028 | 32 | (3) | 87 | 0 | (52) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -22682.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -72743.7% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.20 | 884.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1.40 | 6896.8% |
Is Tinley Beverage Company Inc (TNY.CN) a buy or a sell? Tinley Beverage Company Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Tinley Beverage Company Inc (TNY.CN) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -72743.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.02.