As of May 22, 2025, Temple Bar Investment Trust PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $290.93 to $558.08 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $558.08 | +78.9% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $507.02 | +62.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $357.95 | +14.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $380.50 | +22.0% |
| Earnings Power Value | $290.93 | -6.8% |
Is Temple Bar Investment Trust PLC (TMPL.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $312.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Temple Bar Investment Trust PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 1.06 | 1.2 |
| Cost of equity | 10.3% | 13.3% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.6% |
| Tax rate | 0.8% | 1.1% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| After-tax WACC | 9.8% | 12.6% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $507 | $1,452M | 59.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $558 | $1,591M | 37.5% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $304 | $898M | 33.9% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $417 | $1,207M | 17.6% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $95M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 12.6% - 9.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $754M - $970M |
| Net Debt | $68M |
| Equity Value | $686M - $902M |
| Outstanding Shares | 3M |
| Fair Value | $251 - $330 |
| Selected Fair Value | $290.93 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $851M |
| Enterprise Value | $920M |
| Trailing P/E | 6.10 |
| Forward P/E | 5.83 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 3.30 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 364.86% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -1.34% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.09 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $167.42 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $126.75 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $71.59 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $57.07 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $29.09 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $451.93 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Temple Bar Investment Trust PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $451.93, which is approximately 44.9% above the current market price of $312.00.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Temple Bar Investment Trust PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.