What is TLND's Intrinsic value?

Talend SA (TLND) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 2, 2025, Talend SA's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $3.51 to $3.81 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $3.51 -94.7%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $3.81 -94.2%

Is Talend SA (TLND) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $65.97, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Talend SA's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.2% 3.7%
Equity market risk premium 4.2% 5.2%
Adjusted beta 0.84 0.96
Cost of equity 6.7% 9.2%
Cost of debt 7.0% 50.7%
Tax rate 0.6% 0.7%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.07 0.07
After-tax WACC 6.7% 11.9%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 9.3% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $288 (FY12-2020) to $0 (FY12-2030)
  • Net profit margin expansion from -28% to 0%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $4 $94M 10.3%
10-Year Growth $4 $84M 0.0%
5-Year EBITDA $4 $101M 16.8%
10-Year EBITDA $4 $84M 0.0%

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $2149M
Enterprise Value $2119M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 0.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 24.50
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.07

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 55% $1.05
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 45% $0.95
Weighted Average 100% $3.64

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Talend SA's weighted average intrinsic value is $3.64, which is approximately 94.5% below the current market price of $65.97.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-28% to 0% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.07)

Given these factors, we believe Talend SA is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.