What is TIH.TO's Intrinsic value?

Toromont Industries Ltd (TIH.TO) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Toromont Industries Ltd's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $84.46 to $274.85 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $274.85 +66.1%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $205.09 +24.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $176.01 +6.4%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $84.46 -48.9%
Earnings Power Value $88.98 -46.2%

Is Toromont Industries Ltd (TIH.TO) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $165.43, the stock appears to be moderately undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Toromont Industries Ltd's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.2% 3.7%
Equity market risk premium 5.1% 6.1%
Adjusted beta 0.84 1
Cost of equity 7.5% 10.3%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.5%
Tax rate 27.0% 27.1%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.05 0.05
After-tax WACC 7.2% 9.9%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 8.6% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $5,021 (FY12-2024) to $9,241 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 10% to 24%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $205 $16,473M 77.7%
10-Year Growth $275 $22,149M 61.0%
5-Year EBITDA $229 $18,405M 80.0%
10-Year EBITDA $298 $24,057M 64.1%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 32.9%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.9%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $176.01 (6.4% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 10.3% (Low) to 7.5% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $46 to $123
  • Selected fair value: $84.46 (-48.9% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $588M
Discount Rate (WACC) 9.9% - 7.2%
Enterprise Value $5,917M - $8,130M
Net Debt $(218)M
Equity Value $6,135M - $8,348M
Outstanding Shares 81M
Fair Value $75 - $103
Selected Fair Value $88.98

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $13463M
Enterprise Value $13245M
Trailing P/E 27.16
Forward P/E 19.92
Trailing EV/EBITDA 11.20
Current Dividend Yield 121.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 11.74%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.05

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $82.45
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $51.27
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $35.20
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $12.67
Earnings Power Value 10% $8.90
Weighted Average 100% $190.50

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Toromont Industries Ltd's intrinsic value is $190.50, which is approximately 15.2% above the current market price of $165.43.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (10% to 24% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.05)
  • Historical dividend growth of 11.74%

Given these factors, we believe Toromont Industries Ltd is currently moderately undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.