As of June 15, 2025, Thule Group AB's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $72.01 to $210.25 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $210.25 | -20.7% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $173.19 | -34.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $195.95 | -26.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $177.47 | -33.1% |
| Earnings Power Value | $72.01 | -72.8% |
Is Thule Group AB (THULE.ST) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $265.20, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Thule Group AB's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.93 | 1.13 |
| Cost of equity | 7.3% | 10.4% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 22.5% | 22.6% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.8% | 9.5% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $173 | $22,641M | 79.0% |
| 10-Year Growth | $210 | $26,637M | 63.5% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $170 | $22,273M | 78.6% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $196 | $25,117M | 61.3% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $933M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.5% - 6.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $9,789M - $13,671M |
| Net Debt | $3,964M |
| Equity Value | $5,825M - $9,707M |
| Outstanding Shares | 108M |
| Fair Value | $54 - $90 |
| Selected Fair Value | $72.01 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $28599M |
| Enterprise Value | $32563M |
| Trailing P/E | 26.73 |
| Forward P/E | 23.22 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 10.35 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 351.06% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 6.09% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.15 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $63.07 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $43.30 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $39.19 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $26.62 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $7.20 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $179.39 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Thule Group AB's weighted average intrinsic value is $179.39, which is approximately 32.4% below the current market price of $265.20.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Thule Group AB is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.