As of May 22, 2025, Thule Group AB has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $228.53 per share. With the current market price at $261.00, this represents a potential upside of -12.4%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $188.39 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $228.53 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -27.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -12.4% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 9.4% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $9541 million in 12-2024 to $17850 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 6.5%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 9541 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 10495 | 10% |
| 12-2026 | 11051 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 12290 | 11% |
| 12-2028 | 13312 | 8% |
| 12-2029 | 14029 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 14833 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 15275 | 3% |
| 12-2032 | 16099 | 5% |
| 12-2033 | 16960 | 5% |
| 12-2034 | 17850 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 12% in 12-2024 to 12% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1122 | 12% |
| 12-2025 | 1232 | 12% |
| 12-2026 | 1297 | 12% |
| 12-2027 | 1443 | 12% |
| 12-2028 | 1562 | 12% |
| 12-2029 | 1647 | 12% |
| 12-2030 | 1741 | 12% |
| 12-2031 | 1793 | 12% |
| 12-2032 | 1890 | 12% |
| 12-2033 | 1991 | 12% |
| 12-2034 | 2095 | 12% |
with a 5-year average of $328 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 365 |
| 12-2026 | 338 |
| 12-2027 | 333 |
| 12-2028 | 373 |
| 12-2029 | 416 |
| 12-2030 | 445 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 28 |
| Days Inventory | 160 |
| Days Payables | 42 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 1515 | 270 | 267 | 429 | 549 |
| 2026 | 2081 | 379 | 375 | (12) | 1339 |
| 2027 | 2272 | 421 | 418 | 285 | 1148 |
| 2028 | 2473 | 456 | 452 | 330 | 1234 |
| 2029 | 2629 | 481 | 477 | 133 | 1538 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 188.39 | -27.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 228.53 | -12.4% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 172.66 | -33.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 202.20 | -22.5% |
Is Thule Group AB (THULE.ST) a buy or a sell? Thule Group AB is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Thule Group AB (THULE.ST) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -12.4%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $261.00.