What is THR's Intrinsic value?

Thermon Group Holdings Inc (THR) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Thermon Group Holdings Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $21.05 to $62.78 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $62.78 +56.0%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $45.28 +12.5%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $34.48 -14.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $26.54 -34.0%
Earnings Power Value $21.05 -47.7%

Is Thermon Group Holdings Inc (THR) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $40.23, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Thermon Group Holdings Inc's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.92 1.13
Cost of equity 8.1% 11.2%
Cost of debt 4.8% 5.6%
Tax rate 27.0% 30.2%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.11 0.11
After-tax WACC 7.7% 10.5%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 9.1% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $498 (FY03-2025) to $983 (FY03-2035)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 11% to 20%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $45 $1,596M 77.7%
10-Year Growth $63 $2,171M 62.7%
5-Year EBITDA $55 $1,928M 81.6%
10-Year EBITDA $72 $2,478M 67.4%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 9.7%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0%
  • Fair value: $34.48 (-14.3% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 11.2% (Low) to 8.1% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0% (Low) to 4.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $14 to $39
  • Selected fair value: $26.54 (-34.0% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $71M
Discount Rate (WACC) 10.5% - 7.7%
Enterprise Value $675M - $926M
Net Debt $109M
Equity Value $566M - $817M
Outstanding Shares 33M
Fair Value $17 - $25
Selected Fair Value $21.05

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1321M
Enterprise Value $1430M
Trailing P/E 22.38
Forward P/E 21.18
Trailing EV/EBITDA 12.85
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.11

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $18.83
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $11.32
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $6.90
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $3.98
Earnings Power Value 10% $2.11
Weighted Average 100% $43.13

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Thermon Group Holdings Inc's intrinsic value is $43.13, which is approximately 7.2% above the current market price of $40.23.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (11% to 20% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.11)

Given these factors, we believe Thermon Group Holdings Inc is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.