What is TGTX's DCF valuation?

TG Therapeutics Inc (TGTX) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of April 4, 2026, TG Therapeutics Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $64.73 per share. With the current market price at $33.53, this represents a potential upside of 93.1%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $25.94
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $64.73
Potential Upside (5-year) -22.6%
Potential Upside (10-year) 93.1%
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.4% - 11.6%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Revenue is projected to grow from $616 million in 12-2025 to $5804 million by 12-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 25.1%.

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
12-2025 616 87%
12-2026 648 5%
12-2027 925 43%
12-2028 1337 45%
12-2029 1862 39%
12-2030 2524 36%
12-2031 3109 23%
12-2032 3742 20%
12-2033 4447 19%
12-2034 5173 16%
12-2035 5804 12%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from 73% in 12-2025 to 21% by 12-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
12-2025 447 73%
12-2026 115 18%
12-2027 171 18%
12-2028 256 19%
12-2029 370 20%
12-2030 517 20%
12-2031 641 21%
12-2032 776 21%
12-2033 927 21%
12-2034 1085 21%
12-2035 1224 21%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
12-2026 2
12-2027 4
12-2028 8
12-2029 13
12-2030 19
12-2031 26

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 44
Days Inventory 259
Days Payables 0

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
2026 148 4 8 (89) 225
2027 220 5 12 129 74
2028 330 8 17 113 192
2029 474 11 24 99 339
2030 662 16 33 199 414

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 8.4% - 11.6%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 14.3x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 25.94 -22.6%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 64.73 93.1%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 31.98 -4.6%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 66.52 98.4%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $4,308M
  • 10-Year Model: $10,504M

Investment Conclusion

Is TG Therapeutics Inc (TGTX) a buy or a sell? TG Therapeutics Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, TG Therapeutics Inc (TGTX) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 93.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Steady revenue growth (25.1% CAGR)

Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $33.53.