As of June 14, 2025, Triumph Group Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $45.48 per share. With the current market price at $25.80, this represents a potential upside of 76.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $41.74 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $45.48 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 61.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 76.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.5% - 9.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1262 million in 03-2025 to $1868 million by 03-2035, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 4.0%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 1262 | 6% |
| 03-2026 | 1371 | 9% |
| 03-2027 | 1463 | 7% |
| 03-2028 | 1582 | 8% |
| 03-2029 | 1632 | 3% |
| 03-2030 | 1665 | 2% |
| 03-2031 | 1720 | 3% |
| 03-2032 | 1755 | 2% |
| 03-2033 | 1790 | 2% |
| 03-2034 | 1826 | 2% |
| 03-2035 | 1868 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 3% in 03-2025 to 9% by 03-2035, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 36 | 3% |
| 03-2026 | 58 | 4% |
| 03-2027 | 79 | 5% |
| 03-2028 | 104 | 7% |
| 03-2029 | 126 | 8% |
| 03-2030 | 148 | 9% |
| 03-2031 | 153 | 9% |
| 03-2032 | 156 | 9% |
| 03-2033 | 159 | 9% |
| 03-2034 | 162 | 9% |
| 03-2035 | 166 | 9% |
with a 5-year average of $23 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2026 | 22 |
| 03-2027 | 23 |
| 03-2028 | 22 |
| 03-2029 | 23 |
| 03-2030 | 25 |
| 03-2031 | 26 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 70 |
| Days Inventory | 154 |
| Days Payables | 77 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 181 | 6 | 22 | 39 | 114 |
| 2027 | 212 | 9 | 23 | 5 | 175 |
| 2028 | 248 | 11 | 25 | 46 | 165 |
| 2029 | 277 | 14 | 26 | 11 | 226 |
| 2030 | 304 | 16 | 27 | 2 | 259 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 41.74 | 61.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 45.48 | 76.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 42.99 | 66.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 44.80 | 73.7% |
Is Triumph Group Inc (TGI) a buy or a sell? Triumph Group Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Triumph Group Inc (TGI) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 76.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $25.80.