As of July 10, 2025, Tredegar Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.01 per share. With the current market price at $9.07, this represents a potential upside of -100.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.01 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -99.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -100.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.8% - 10.1% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $598 million in 12-2024 to $721 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.9%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 598 | 15% |
| 12-2025 | 561 | -6% |
| 12-2026 | 572 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 583 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 595 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 607 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 625 | 3% |
| 12-2031 | 655 | 5% |
| 12-2032 | 668 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 683 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 721 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 0% in 12-2024 to 0% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2025 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2026 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2027 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2028 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2029 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2030 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2031 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2032 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2033 | 1 | 0% |
| 12-2034 | 1 | 0% |
with a 5-year average of $26 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 25 |
| 12-2026 | 23 |
| 12-2027 | 19 |
| 12-2028 | 18 |
| 12-2029 | 19 |
| 12-2030 | 20 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 33 |
| Days Inventory | 48 |
| Days Payables | 54 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 22 | 0 | 14 | (6) | 13 |
| 2026 | 28 | 0 | 19 | (4) | 13 |
| 2027 | 24 | 0 | 19 | 6 | (1) |
| 2028 | 23 | 0 | 20 | (1) | 4 |
| 2029 | 24 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 4 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.01 | -99.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -100.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1.83 | -79.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1.40 | -84.6% |
Is Tredegar Corp (TG) a buy or a sell? Tredegar Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Tredegar Corp (TG) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -100.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $9.07.