As of December 15, 2025, Container Store Group Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $2.65, this represents a potential upside of -68483.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -138855.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -68483.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.6% - 7.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $848 million in 03-2024 to $1002 million by 03-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | 848 | 19% |
| 03-2025 | 778 | -8% |
| 03-2026 | 798 | 2% |
| 03-2027 | 826 | 4% |
| 03-2028 | 870 | 5% |
| 03-2029 | 887 | 2% |
| 03-2030 | 920 | 4% |
| 03-2031 | 945 | 3% |
| 03-2032 | 964 | 2% |
| 03-2033 | 983 | 2% |
| 03-2034 | 1002 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -12% in 03-2024 to -3% by 03-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 03-2024 | (103) | -12% |
| 03-2025 | (71) | -9% |
| 03-2026 | (62) | -8% |
| 03-2027 | (52) | -6% |
| 03-2028 | (44) | -5% |
| 03-2029 | (34) | -4% |
| 03-2030 | (33) | -4% |
| 03-2031 | (31) | -3% |
| 03-2032 | (30) | -3% |
| 03-2033 | (28) | -3% |
| 03-2034 | (26) | -3% |
with a 5-year average of $38 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 03-2025 | 37 |
| 03-2026 | 40 |
| 03-2027 | 39 |
| 03-2028 | 33 |
| 03-2029 | 32 |
| 03-2030 | 33 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 6 |
| Days Inventory | 151 |
| Days Payables | 57 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2025 | (21) | (14) | 15 | (9) | (14) |
| 2026 | (26) | (23) | 31 | 0 | (34) |
| 2027 | (13) | (20) | 32 | (1) | (24) |
| 2028 | (6) | (17) | 34 | 0 | (23) |
| 2029 | 7 | (13) | 34 | (2) | (12) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -138855.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -68483.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Container Store Group Inc (TCS) a buy or a sell? Container Store Group Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Container Store Group Inc (TCS) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -68483.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $2.65.