What is TCM.L's Intrinsic value?

Telit Communications PLC (TCM.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 9, 2025, Telit Communications PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $123.89 to $441.22 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $363.40 +58.7%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $259.48 +13.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $180.22 -21.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $441.22 +92.7%
Earnings Power Value $123.89 -45.9%

Is Telit Communications PLC (TCM.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $229.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Telit Communications PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.9% 3.4%
Equity market risk premium 5.3% 6.3%
Adjusted beta 0.89 0.98
Cost of equity 7.7% 10.2%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.5%
Tax rate 11.7% 16.6%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.12 0.12
After-tax WACC 7.2% 9.5%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 8.4% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $344 (FY12-2020) to $663 (FY12-2030)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 2% to 7%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 9% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $316 $367M 77.9%
10-Year Growth $442 $537M 62.3%
5-Year EBITDA $401 $481M 83.1%
10-Year EBITDA $483 $591M 65.7%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.9%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $180.22 (-21.3% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 10.2% (Low) to 7.7% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $305 to $769
  • Selected fair value: $441.22 (92.7% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $12M
Discount Rate (WACC) 9.5% - 7.2%
Enterprise Value $126M - $166M
Net Debt $(56)M
Equity Value $183M - $222M
Outstanding Shares 1M
Fair Value $136 - $166
Selected Fair Value $123.89

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $307M
Enterprise Value $265M
Trailing P/E 7.71
Forward P/E 34.46
Trailing EV/EBITDA 7.90
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.12

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $109.02
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $64.87
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $36.04
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $66.18
Earnings Power Value 10% $12.39
Weighted Average 100% $288.51

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Telit Communications PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $288.51, which is approximately 26.0% above the current market price of $229.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (2% to 7% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.12)

Given these factors, we believe Telit Communications PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.