As of June 12, 2025, Technicolor SA has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $1.58 per share. With the current market price at $0.25, this represents a potential upside of 538.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $1.15 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $1.58 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 365.3% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 538.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.3% - 12.2% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $2776 million in 12-2022 to $3935 million by 12-2032, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 2776 | 23% |
| 12-2023 | 3106 | 12% |
| 12-2024 | 3168 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 3241 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 3306 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 3372 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 3477 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 3547 | 2% |
| 12-2030 | 3668 | 3% |
| 12-2031 | 3742 | 2% |
| 12-2032 | 3935 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -19% in 12-2022 to -9% by 12-2032, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2022 | (530) | -19% |
| 12-2023 | (474) | -15% |
| 12-2024 | (432) | -14% |
| 12-2025 | (389) | -12% |
| 12-2026 | (345) | -10% |
| 12-2027 | (300) | -9% |
| 12-2028 | (309) | -9% |
| 12-2029 | (316) | -9% |
| 12-2030 | (326) | -9% |
| 12-2031 | (333) | -9% |
| 12-2032 | (350) | -9% |
. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2023 | 67 |
| 12-2024 | 82 |
| 12-2025 | 77 |
| 12-2026 | 79 |
| 12-2027 | 79 |
| 12-2028 | 80 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 85 |
| Days Inventory | 49 |
| Days Payables | 154 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 93 | (30) | 75 | (13) | 61 |
| 2024 | 164 | (28) | 77 | (11) | 126 |
| 2025 | 216 | (25) | 79 | 34 | 128 |
| 2026 | 276 | (22) | 80 | 11 | 207 |
| 2027 | 335 | (19) | 82 | 11 | 262 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 1.15 | 365.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 1.58 | 538.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.63 | 153.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 1.00 | 299.5% |
Is Technicolor SA (TCH.PA) a buy or a sell? Technicolor SA is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Technicolor SA (TCH.PA) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 538.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $0.25.