What is TAKAREKJZB.BD's Intrinsic value?

Takarek Jelzalogbank Nyrt (TAKAREKJZB.BD) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 15, 2025, Takarek Jelzalogbank Nyrt's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $139.50 to $158.58 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $139.50 -71.4%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $158.58 -67.5%

Is Takarek Jelzalogbank Nyrt (TAKAREKJZB.BD) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $488.00, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Takarek Jelzalogbank Nyrt's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 7.1% 7.6%
Equity market risk premium 8.4% 9.4%
Adjusted beta 0.54 0.64
Cost of equity 11.6% 14.2%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 12.7% 20.9%
Debt/Equity ratio 7.95 7.95
After-tax WACC 5.2% 5.1%

Valuation Methods

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 12.9%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.5%
  • Fair value: $139.50 (-71.4% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 14.2% (Low) to 11.6% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.5% (Low) to 4.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $102 to $215
  • Selected fair value: $158.58 (-67.5% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $73555M
Enterprise Value $753584M
Trailing P/E 28.67
Forward P/E 26.02
Trailing EV/EBITDA 0.00
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 7.95

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 57% $27.90
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 43% $23.79
Weighted Average 100% $147.68

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Takarek Jelzalogbank Nyrt's weighted average intrinsic value is $147.68, which is approximately 69.7% below the current market price of $488.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Overall financial health and market position

Given these factors, we believe Takarek Jelzalogbank Nyrt is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.