As of June 14, 2025, So-Young International Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.96, this represents a potential upside of -1770.0%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -1815.0% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -1770.0% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 4.2% - 5.7% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1692 million in 12-2021 to $51105 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 40.6%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 1692 | 31% |
| 12-2022 | 2542 | 50% |
| 12-2023 | 3312 | 30% |
| 12-2024 | 5432 | 64% |
| 12-2025 | 8328 | 53% |
| 12-2026 | 11980 | 44% |
| 12-2027 | 16983 | 42% |
| 12-2028 | 23471 | 38% |
| 12-2029 | 30319 | 29% |
| 12-2030 | 39874 | 32% |
| 12-2031 | 51105 | 28% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -2% in 12-2021 to 3% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | (38) | -2% |
| 12-2022 | (0) | 0% |
| 12-2023 | 22 | 1% |
| 12-2024 | 71 | 1% |
| 12-2025 | 160 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 298 | 2% |
| 12-2027 | 442 | 3% |
| 12-2028 | 636 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 854 | 3% |
| 12-2030 | 1165 | 3% |
| 12-2031 | 1547 | 3% |
with a 5-year average of $25 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 35 |
| 12-2023 | 47 |
| 12-2024 | 61 |
| 12-2025 | 87 |
| 12-2026 | 125 |
| 12-2027 | 182 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 16 |
| Days Inventory | 34 |
| Days Payables | 3 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 2 | (0) | 50 | (14) | (34) |
| 2023 | 35 | 8 | 66 | 72 | (112) |
| 2024 | 88 | 26 | 107 | 164 | (210) |
| 2025 | 197 | 59 | 165 | 147 | (174) |
| 2026 | 378 | 110 | 237 | 250 | (219) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1815.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1770.0% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 2.24 | 132.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 15.88 | 1554.0% |
Is So-Young International Inc (SY) a buy or a sell? So-Young International Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, So-Young International Inc (SY) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -1770.0%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.96.