What is SXS.L's Intrinsic value?

Spectris PLC (SXS.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 22, 2025, Spectris PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $875.15 to $2837.52 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $2837.52 +38.8%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $2785.47 +36.3%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $2263.68 +10.7%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $2276.79 +11.4%
Earnings Power Value $875.15 -57.2%

Is Spectris PLC (SXS.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $2044.00, the stock appears to be moderately undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Spectris PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 1.13 1.23
Cost of equity 10.7% 13.6%
Cost of debt 5.1% 8.9%
Tax rate 22.4% 23.5%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.35 0.35
After-tax WACC 8.9% 11.8%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 10.4% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $1,299 (FY12-2024) to $2,017 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 18% to 18%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 3% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $2,785 $3,398M 69.6%
10-Year Growth $2,838 $3,450M 48.3%
5-Year EBITDA $3,069 $3,681M 71.9%
10-Year EBITDA $3,067 $3,678M 51.5%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 34.5%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 12.2%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0%
  • Fair value: $2263.68 (10.7% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 13.6% (Low) to 10.7% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0% (Low) to 4.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $1,416 to $3,137
  • Selected fair value: $2276.79 (11.4% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $152M
Discount Rate (WACC) 11.8% - 8.9%
Enterprise Value $1,290M - $1,703M
Net Debt $626M
Equity Value $665M - $1,078M
Outstanding Shares 1M
Fair Value $668 - $1,083
Selected Fair Value $875.15

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $2035M
Enterprise Value $2660M
Trailing P/E 8.71
Forward P/E 7.59
Trailing EV/EBITDA 9.90
Current Dividend Yield 390.67%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 1.55%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.35

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $851.26
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $696.37
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $452.74
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $341.52
Earnings Power Value 10% $87.52
Weighted Average 100% $2429.39

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Spectris PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $2429.39, which is approximately 18.9% above the current market price of $2044.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (18% to 18% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Historical dividend growth of 1.55%

Given these factors, we believe Spectris PLC is currently moderately undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.