What is SXS.L's Intrinsic value?

Spectris PLC (SXS.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of December 15, 2025, Spectris PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $640.18 to $3224.12 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $2849.60 -31.2%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $2714.89 -34.5%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $3224.12 -22.2%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $640.18 -84.5%
Earnings Power Value $865.07 -79.1%

Is Spectris PLC (SXS.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $4142.00, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Spectris PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.97 1.13
Cost of equity 9.8% 12.9%
Cost of debt 6.2% 8.9%
Tax rate 22.4% 23.5%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.18 0.18
After-tax WACC 9.0% 12.0%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 10.5% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $1,299 (FY12-2024) to $1,955 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 18% to 18%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 3% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $2,715 $3,313M 71.4%
10-Year Growth $2,850 $3,446M 49.9%
5-Year EBITDA $2,170 $2,773M 65.8%
10-Year EBITDA $2,413 $3,013M 42.6%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 142.7%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 11.3%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0%
  • Fair value: $3224.12 (-22.2% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 12.9% (Low) to 9.8% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0% (Low) to 4.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $375 to $906
  • Selected fair value: $640.18 (-84.5% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $152M
Discount Rate (WACC) 12.0% - 9.0%
Enterprise Value $1,273M - $1,686M
Net Debt $622M
Equity Value $651M - $1,064M
Outstanding Shares 1M
Fair Value $657 - $1,073
Selected Fair Value $865.07

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $4105M
Enterprise Value $4727M
Trailing P/E 71.02
Forward P/E 15.76
Trailing EV/EBITDA 6.60
Current Dividend Yield 200.97%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 1.55%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.18

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $854.88
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $678.72
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $644.82
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $96.03
Earnings Power Value 10% $86.51
Weighted Average 100% $2360.96

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Spectris PLC's intrinsic value is $2360.96, which is approximately 43.0% below the current market price of $4142.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (18% to 18% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.18)
  • Historical dividend growth of 1.55%

Given these factors, we believe Spectris PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.