What is SXI's Intrinsic value?

Standex International Corp (SXI) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 29, 2025, Standex International Corp's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $46.23 to $259.66 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $259.66 +71.2%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $204.03 +34.5%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $191.42 +26.2%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $81.57 -46.2%
Earnings Power Value $46.23 -69.5%

Is Standex International Corp (SXI) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $151.68, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Standex International Corp's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.9% 4.4%
Equity market risk premium 4.6% 5.6%
Adjusted beta 0.97 1.01
Cost of equity 8.3% 10.5%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.8%
Tax rate 23.6% 24.3%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.09 0.09
After-tax WACC 7.9% 10.0%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 9.0% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $721 (FY06-2024) to $1,336 (FY06-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 10% to 22%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 3% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $204 $2,898M 81.2%
10-Year Growth $260 $3,560M 64.7%
5-Year EBITDA $187 $2,691M 79.8%
10-Year EBITDA $237 $3,287M 61.8%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 24.3%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 9.4%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.5%
  • Fair value: $191.42 (26.2% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 10.5% (Low) to 8.3% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.5% (Low) to 4.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $44 to $119
  • Selected fair value: $81.57 (-46.2% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $90M
Discount Rate (WACC) 10.0% - 7.9%
Enterprise Value $902M - $1,137M
Net Debt $470M
Equity Value $432M - $668M
Outstanding Shares 12M
Fair Value $36 - $56
Selected Fair Value $46.23

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1805M
Enterprise Value $2275M
Trailing P/E 29.82
Forward P/E 18.49
Trailing EV/EBITDA 10.90
Current Dividend Yield 84.83%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 6.99%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.09

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $77.90
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $51.01
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $38.28
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $12.24
Earnings Power Value 10% $4.62
Weighted Average 100% $184.05

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Standex International Corp's weighted average intrinsic value is $184.05, which is approximately 21.3% above the current market price of $151.68.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (10% to 22% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.09)
  • Historical dividend growth of 6.99%

Given these factors, we believe Standex International Corp is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.