As of April 1, 2026, Swedish Match AB's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $54.42 to $255.34 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $199.75 | +77.0% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $166.31 | +47.4% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $140.73 | +24.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $255.34 | +126.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $54.42 | -51.8% |
Is Swedish Match AB (SWMA.ST) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $112.85, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Swedish Match AB's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 2.5% | 3.0% |
| Equity market risk premium | 5.1% | 6.1% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.46 | 0.55 |
| Cost of equity | 4.8% | 6.8% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 21.8% | 22.3% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.8% | 6.6% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $166 | $264,251M | 89.3% |
| 10-Year Growth | $200 | $315,104M | 79.9% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $61 | $103,460M | 72.7% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $87 | $143,400M | 55.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $5,200M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.6% - 4.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $78,887M - $109,292M |
| Net Debt | $11,337M |
| Equity Value | $67,550M - $97,955M |
| Outstanding Shares | 1,521M |
| Fair Value | $44 - $64 |
| Selected Fair Value | $54.42 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $171611M |
| Enterprise Value | $182948M |
| Trailing P/E | 27.02 |
| Forward P/E | 26.21 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 8.20 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 82.40% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -5.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.09 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $59.93 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $41.58 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $28.15 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $38.30 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $5.44 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $173.39 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Swedish Match AB's intrinsic value is $173.39, which is approximately 53.6% above the current market price of $112.85.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Swedish Match AB is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.