As of June 17, 2025, Schweitzer-Mauduit International Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $67.91 per share. With the current market price at $23.41, this represents a potential upside of 190.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $58.86 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $67.91 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 151.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 190.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.8% - 8.6% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $1440 million in 12-2021 to $1703 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 1.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 1440 | 34% |
| 12-2022 | 1374 | -5% |
| 12-2023 | 1402 | 2% |
| 12-2024 | 1430 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 1463 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 1499 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 1529 | 2% |
| 12-2028 | 1560 | 2% |
| 12-2029 | 1637 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 1669 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 1703 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 6% in 12-2021 to 10% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 82 | 6% |
| 12-2022 | 75 | 5% |
| 12-2023 | 93 | 7% |
| 12-2024 | 113 | 8% |
| 12-2025 | 133 | 9% |
| 12-2026 | 154 | 10% |
| 12-2027 | 157 | 10% |
| 12-2028 | 160 | 10% |
| 12-2029 | 168 | 10% |
| 12-2030 | 171 | 10% |
| 12-2031 | 174 | 10% |
with a 5-year average of $35 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 36 |
| 12-2023 | 39 |
| 12-2024 | 42 |
| 12-2025 | 44 |
| 12-2026 | 46 |
| 12-2027 | 47 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 46 |
| Days Inventory | 84 |
| Days Payables | 33 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2022 | 130 | 12 | 33 | (27) | 111 |
| 2023 | 200 | 20 | 45 | 13 | 121 |
| 2024 | 227 | 25 | 46 | 3 | 153 |
| 2025 | 255 | 29 | 47 | 2 | 177 |
| 2026 | 284 | 34 | 48 | 8 | 194 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 58.86 | 151.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 67.91 | 190.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 4.97 | -78.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 21.77 | -7.0% |
Is Schweitzer-Mauduit International Inc (SWM) a buy or a sell? Schweitzer-Mauduit International Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Schweitzer-Mauduit International Inc (SWM) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 190.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $23.41.