As of May 23, 2025, Stanley Black & Decker Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $105.14 per share. With the current market price at $66.34, this represents a potential upside of 58.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $85.47 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $105.14 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 28.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 58.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.2% - 9.3% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $15366 million in 12-2024 to $20871 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 15366 | 0% |
| 12-2025 | 15564 | 1% |
| 12-2026 | 16309 | 5% |
| 12-2027 | 16916 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 17415 | 3% |
| 12-2029 | 18184 | 4% |
| 12-2030 | 18548 | 2% |
| 12-2031 | 19644 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 20060 | 2% |
| 12-2033 | 20462 | 2% |
| 12-2034 | 20871 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 2% in 12-2024 to 6% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 286 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 347 | 2% |
| 12-2026 | 531 | 3% |
| 12-2027 | 721 | 4% |
| 12-2028 | 915 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 1131 | 6% |
| 12-2030 | 1154 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 1222 | 6% |
| 12-2032 | 1248 | 6% |
| 12-2033 | 1273 | 6% |
| 12-2034 | 1299 | 6% |
with a 5-year average of $383 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 2% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 352 |
| 12-2026 | 363 |
| 12-2027 | 376 |
| 12-2028 | 389 |
| 12-2029 | 406 |
| 12-2030 | 420 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 26 |
| Days Inventory | 152 |
| Days Payables | 79 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 853 | 87 | 281 | (8) | 493 |
| 2026 | 1410 | 177 | 392 | 16 | 825 |
| 2027 | 1690 | 241 | 407 | 146 | 897 |
| 2028 | 1972 | 305 | 419 | 41 | 1207 |
| 2029 | 2293 | 378 | 437 | 91 | 1387 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 85.47 | 28.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 105.14 | 58.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 113.93 | 71.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 125.73 | 89.5% |
Is Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK) a buy or a sell? Stanley Black & Decker Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Stanley Black & Decker Inc (SWK) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 58.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $66.34.