What is SU.PA's Intrinsic value?

Schneider Electric SE (SU.PA) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of August 2, 2025, Schneider Electric SE's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $91.20 to $184.29 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $184.29 -13.8%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $147.09 -31.2%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $124.83 -41.6%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $91.20 -57.4%
Earnings Power Value $98.40 -54.0%

Is Schneider Electric SE (SU.PA) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $213.90, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Schneider Electric SE's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.0% 3.5%
Equity market risk premium 5.8% 6.8%
Adjusted beta 0.89 1
Cost of equity 8.1% 10.8%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 23.6% 23.9%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.11 0.11
After-tax WACC 7.7% 10.1%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 8.9% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $38,153 (FY12-2024) to $70,000 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 12% to 16%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 3% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $147 $92,474M 72.8%
10-Year Growth $184 $113,888M 55.9%
5-Year EBITDA $150 $93,990M 73.3%
10-Year EBITDA $184 $113,888M 55.9%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 46.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 9.5%
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0%
  • Fair value: $124.83 (-41.6% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 10.8% (Low) to 8.1% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0% (Low) to 3.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $53 to $130
  • Selected fair value: $91.20 (-57.4% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $5,650M
Discount Rate (WACC) 10.1% - 7.7%
Enterprise Value $55,721M - $73,173M
Net Debt $7,805M
Equity Value $47,916M - $65,368M
Outstanding Shares 576M
Fair Value $83 - $114
Selected Fair Value $98.40

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $123127M
Enterprise Value $130932M
Trailing P/E 28.84
Forward P/E 24.62
Trailing EV/EBITDA 9.25
Current Dividend Yield 144.35%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 8.57%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.11

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $55.29
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $36.77
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $24.97
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $13.68
Earnings Power Value 10% $9.84
Weighted Average 100% $140.54

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Schneider Electric SE's intrinsic value is $140.54, which is approximately 34.3% below the current market price of $213.90.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (12% to 16% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.11)
  • Historical dividend growth of 8.57%

Given these factors, we believe Schneider Electric SE is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.