What is STU.L's Intrinsic value?

Studio Retail Group PLC (STU.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 12, 2025, Studio Retail Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $160.81 to $484.69 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $484.69 +321.5%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $224.12 +94.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $160.81 +39.8%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $288.99 +151.3%
Earnings Power Value $190.08 +65.3%

Is Studio Retail Group PLC (STU.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $115.00, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Studio Retail Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 2.9% 3.4%
Equity market risk premium 5.3% 6.3%
Adjusted beta 2.66 2.87
Cost of equity 17.2% 22.1%
Cost of debt 4.3% 4.5%
Tax rate 8.4% 15.2%
Debt/Equity ratio 3.3 3.3
After-tax WACC 7.0% 8.1%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.5% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $579 (FY03-2021) to $933 (FY03-2031)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 6% to 6%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 3% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $224 $479M 73.0%
10-Year Growth $485 $707M 57.1%
5-Year EBITDA $119 $388M 66.6%
10-Year EBITDA $284 $532M 43.1%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 19.7%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $160.81 (39.8% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 22.1% (Low) to 17.2% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $209 to $369
  • Selected fair value: $288.99 (151.3% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $34M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.1% - 7.0%
Enterprise Value $417M - $482M
Net Debt $284M
Equity Value $133M - $198M
Outstanding Shares 1M
Fair Value $153 - $227
Selected Fair Value $190.08

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $100M
Enterprise Value $384M
Trailing P/E 2.47
Forward P/E 3.03
Trailing EV/EBITDA 4.15
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 3.30

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $145.41
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $56.03
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $32.16
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $43.35
Earnings Power Value 10% $19.01
Weighted Average 100% $295.95

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Studio Retail Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $295.95, which is approximately 157.4% above the current market price of $115.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (6% to 6% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Studio Retail Group PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.