What is STMPA.PA's Intrinsic value?

STMicroelectronics NV (STMPA.PA) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of April 24, 2026, STMicroelectronics NV's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $9.56 to $17.68 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $15.98 -62.7%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $17.68 -58.8%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $15.60 -63.6%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $9.56 -77.7%
Earnings Power Value $12.08 -71.8%

Is STMicroelectronics NV (STMPA.PA) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $42.87, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate STMicroelectronics NV's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 3.0% 3.5%
Equity market risk premium 5.8% 6.8%
Adjusted beta 1.16 1.29
Cost of equity 9.8% 12.8%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.5%
Tax rate 12.1% 12.9%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.1 0.1
After-tax WACC 9.2% 11.9%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 10.6% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $13,269 (FY12-2024) to $17,731 (FY12-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 15% to 15%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 23% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $20 $19,807M 64.5%
10-Year Growth $18 $18,017M 41.9%
5-Year EBITDA $57 $52,811M 86.7%
10-Year EBITDA $47 $44,485M 76.5%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 35.3%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 11.3%
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0%
  • Fair value: $15.60 (-63.6% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 12.8% (Low) to 9.8% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 2.0% (Low) to 4.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $6 to $16
  • Selected fair value: $9.56 (-77.7% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $1,446M
Discount Rate (WACC) 11.9% - 9.2%
Enterprise Value $12,110M - $15,749M
Net Debt $1,249M
Equity Value $10,861M - $14,500M
Outstanding Shares 911M
Fair Value $12 - $16
Selected Fair Value $12.08

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $39067M
Enterprise Value $40151M
Trailing P/E 49.61
Forward P/E 28.31
Trailing EV/EBITDA 15.30
Current Dividend Yield 104.82%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 14.42%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.10

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $4.79
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $4.42
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $3.12
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $1.43
Earnings Power Value 10% $1.21
Weighted Average 100% $14.98

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, STMicroelectronics NV's intrinsic value is $14.98, which is approximately 65.1% below the current market price of $42.87.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (15% to 15% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.10)
  • Historical dividend growth of 14.42%

Given these factors, we believe STMicroelectronics NV is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.