As of June 9, 2025, Stamps.Com Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $145.84 to $392.44 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $392.44 | +19.1% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $314.92 | -4.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $235.79 | -28.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $145.84 | -55.8% |
| Earnings Power Value | $149.47 | -54.7% |
Is Stamps.Com Inc (STMP) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $329.61, the stock appears to be moderately overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Stamps.Com Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.2% | 3.7% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.2% | 5.2% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.91 | 1.02 |
| Cost of equity | 7.0% | 9.5% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 10.7% | 20.9% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0 | 0 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.0% | 9.5% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $315 | $5,317M | 82.6% |
| 10-Year Growth | $392 | $6,757M | 68.3% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $259 | $4,285M | 78.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $330 | $5,588M | 61.7% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $181M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 9.5% - 7.0% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,908M - $2,579M |
| Net Debt | $(533)M |
| Equity Value | $2,441M - $3,112M |
| Outstanding Shares | 19M |
| Fair Value | $131 - $168 |
| Selected Fair Value | $149.47 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $6123M |
| Enterprise Value | $5590M |
| Trailing P/E | 51.47 |
| Forward P/E | 33.91 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 13.70 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.00 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $117.73 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $78.73 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $47.16 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $21.88 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $14.95 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $280.44 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Stamps.Com Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $280.44, which is approximately 14.9% below the current market price of $329.61.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Stamps.Com Inc is currently moderately overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.