As of August 16, 2025, Stamps.Com Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $392.44 per share. With the current market price at $329.61, this represents a potential upside of 19.1%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $314.92 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $392.44 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -4.5% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 19.1% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.0% - 9.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $758 million in 12-2020 to $1918 million by 12-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.7%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 758 | 33% |
| 12-2021 | 774 | 2% |
| 12-2022 | 877 | 13% |
| 12-2023 | 1049 | 20% |
| 12-2024 | 1227 | 17% |
| 12-2025 | 1387 | 13% |
| 12-2026 | 1543 | 11% |
| 12-2027 | 1645 | 7% |
| 12-2028 | 1732 | 5% |
| 12-2029 | 1826 | 5% |
| 12-2030 | 1918 | 5% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 24% in 12-2020 to 25% by 12-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2020 | 179 | 24% |
| 12-2021 | 181 | 23% |
| 12-2022 | 208 | 24% |
| 12-2023 | 253 | 24% |
| 12-2024 | 301 | 25% |
| 12-2025 | 346 | 25% |
| 12-2026 | 384 | 25% |
| 12-2027 | 410 | 25% |
| 12-2028 | 431 | 25% |
| 12-2029 | 455 | 25% |
| 12-2030 | 478 | 25% |
with a 5-year average of $5 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 5 |
| 12-2022 | 5 |
| 12-2023 | 7 |
| 12-2024 | 9 |
| 12-2025 | 11 |
| 12-2026 | 12 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 43 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 48 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6M/2021 | 105 | 12 | 4 | 38 | 52 |
| 2022 | 243 | 28 | 9 | (6) | 212 |
| 2023 | 295 | 33 | 10 | (7) | 259 |
| 2024 | 352 | 40 | 12 | 34 | 266 |
| 2025 | 405 | 46 | 14 | 5 | 341 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 314.92 | -4.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 392.44 | 19.1% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 262.03 | -20.5% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 332.24 | 0.8% |
Is Stamps.Com Inc (STMP) a buy or a sell? Stamps.Com Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Stamps.Com Inc (STMP) appears to be moderately undervalued with upside potential of 19.1%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a buy at the current market price of $329.61.