What is STAN.L's Intrinsic value?

Standard Chartered PLC (STAN.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 23, 2025, Standard Chartered PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $635.68 to $1309.88 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $635.68 -45.5%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $1309.88 +12.3%

Is Standard Chartered PLC (STAN.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $1166.00, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Standard Chartered PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 1.53 1.72
Cost of equity 13.1% 17.0%
Cost of debt 5.0% 5.0%
Tax rate 32.2% 32.5%
Debt/Equity ratio 3.89 3.89
After-tax WACC 5.4% 6.2%

Valuation Methods

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 11.5%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 15.1%
  • Long-term growth rate: 1.0%
  • Fair value: $635.68 (-45.5% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 17.0% (Low) to 13.1% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5% (Low) to 1.5% (High)
  • Fair value range: $1,233 to $2,247
  • Selected fair value: $1309.88 (12.3% from current price)

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $27236M
Enterprise Value $92029M
Trailing P/E 5.33
Forward P/E 8.84
Trailing EV/EBITDA 0.00
Current Dividend Yield 218.43%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 6.72%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 3.89

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 57% $127.14
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 43% $196.48
Weighted Average 100% $924.63

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Standard Chartered PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $924.63, which is approximately 20.7% below the current market price of $1166.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Historical dividend growth of 6.72%

Given these factors, we believe Standard Chartered PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.