What is SRES.L's DCF valuation?

Sunrise Resources Plc (SRES.L) DCF Valuation Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 16, 2025, Sunrise Resources Plc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.01, this represents a potential upside of -2681.7%.

Key Metrics Value
DCF Fair Value (5-year) $0.00
DCF Fair Value (10-year) $0.00
Potential Upside (5-year) -2561.9%
Potential Upside (10-year) -2681.7%
Discount Rate (WACC) 5.8% - 8.2%

Financial Performance & Projections

Revenue Trends

Fiscal Year Revenue (USD millions) Growth
09-2024 0 -
09-2025 0 5%
09-2026 0 6%
09-2027 0 3%
09-2028 0 4%
09-2029 0 9%
09-2030 0 4%
09-2031 0 6%
09-2032 0 7%
09-2033 0 2%
09-2034 0 3%

Profitability Projections

Net profit margin is expected to improve from -588% in 09-2024 to -84% by 09-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.

Fiscal Year Net Profit (USD millions) Profit Margin
09-2024 (1) -588%
09-2025 (1) -56%
09-2026 (1) -59%
09-2027 (1) -61%
09-2028 (1) -63%
09-2029 (1) -68%
09-2030 (1) -71%
09-2031 (1) -75%
09-2032 (1) -80%
09-2033 (1) -81%
09-2034 (1) -84%

DCF Model Components

1. Capital Expenditures (CapEx)

with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 92% of revenue.

2. Depreciation & Amortization

Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.

Fiscal Year D&A (USD millions)
09-2025 0
09-2026 0
09-2027 0
09-2028 0
09-2029 0
09-2030 0

3. Working Capital Requirements

Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.

Components Average Days
Days Receivables 61
Days Inventory 0
Days Payables 77

4. Free Cash Flow Projections

Fiscal Year EBITDA Tax CapEx Change in NWC FCF
2025 (1) (0) 0 (0) (0)
2026 (1) (0) 0 0 (1)
2027 (1) (0) 0 0 (1)
2028 (1) (0) 0 (0) (1)
2029 (1) (0) 0 0 (1)

DCF Valuation Parameters

Key Assumptions

  • Discount Rate (WACC): WACC / Discount Rate (selected: 5.8% - 8.2%)
  • Long-Term Growth Rate: Long-term Growth Rate (selected: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Terminal EV/EBITDA Multiple: 7.2x (based on peer average)

Valuation Summary

Valuation Method Fair Price (USD) Potential Upside
5-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -2561.9%
10-Year DCF (Growth) 0.00 -2681.7%
5-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%
10-Year DCF (EBITDA) 0.00 -100.0%

Enterprise Value Breakdown

  • 5-Year Model: $(19)M
  • 10-Year Model: $(20)M

Investment Conclusion

Is Sunrise Resources Plc (SRES.L) a buy or a sell? Sunrise Resources Plc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Sunrise Resources Plc (SRES.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -2681.7%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.

Key investment drivers include:

  • Expanding profit margins (from -588% to -84%)
  • Strong free cash flow generation

Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.01.