As of April 4, 2026, Surmodics Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $3.24 per share. With the current market price at $42.98, this represents a potential upside of -92.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $3.24 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -102.8% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -92.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.5% - 8.0% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $126 million in 09-2024 to $156 million by 09-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2024 | 126 | 5% |
| 09-2025 | 120 | -5% |
| 09-2026 | 124 | 4% |
| 09-2027 | 134 | 7% |
| 09-2028 | 136 | 2% |
| 09-2029 | 139 | 2% |
| 09-2030 | 142 | 2% |
| 09-2031 | 147 | 3% |
| 09-2032 | 150 | 2% |
| 09-2033 | 153 | 2% |
| 09-2034 | 156 | 2% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -9% in 09-2024 to 1% by 09-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 09-2024 | (12) | -9% |
| 09-2025 | (4) | -3% |
| 09-2026 | (3) | -2% |
| 09-2027 | (2) | -2% |
| 09-2028 | (1) | -1% |
| 09-2029 | (0) | 0% |
| 09-2030 | 0 | 0% |
| 09-2031 | 0 | 0% |
| 09-2032 | 1 | 0% |
| 09-2033 | 1 | 1% |
| 09-2034 | 1 | 1% |
with a 5-year average of $4 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 4% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 09-2025 | 4 |
| 09-2026 | 4 |
| 09-2027 | 4 |
| 09-2028 | 4 |
| 09-2029 | 5 |
| 09-2030 | 5 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 61 |
| Days Inventory | 199 |
| Days Payables | 43 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2025 | 0 | (0) | 1 | (1) | 0 |
| 2026 | 1 | (1) | 5 | 0 | (2) |
| 2027 | 3 | (1) | 5 | 2 | (3) |
| 2028 | 5 | (0) | 5 | (0) | 1 |
| 2029 | 7 | (0) | 5 | 0 | 2 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -102.8% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 3.24 | -92.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 3.78 | -91.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 5.40 | -87.4% |
Is Surmodics Inc (SRDX) a buy or a sell? Surmodics Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Surmodics Inc (SRDX) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -92.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $42.98.