As of May 29, 2025, SpartanNash Co's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.18 to $2592.73 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $511.42 | +2525.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $411.29 | +2011.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $2592.73 | +13209.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $0.18 | -99.1% |
| Earnings Power Value | $19.38 | -0.5% |
Is SpartanNash Co (SPTN) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $19.48, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate SpartanNash Co's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.43 | 0.61 |
| Cost of equity | 5.9% | 8.3% |
| Cost of debt | 5.5% | 6.1% |
| Tax rate | 25.4% | 25.9% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1.18 | 1.18 |
| After-tax WACC | 4.9% | 6.2% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $411 | $14,654M | 87.2% |
| 10-Year Growth | $511 | $18,044M | 75.0% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $208 | $7,777M | 75.9% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $291 | $10,597M | 57.4% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $76M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 4.9% |
| Enterprise Value | $1,220M - $1,557M |
| Net Debt | $732M |
| Equity Value | $487M - $824M |
| Outstanding Shares | 34M |
| Fair Value | $14 - $24 |
| Selected Fair Value | $19.38 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $659M |
| Enterprise Value | $1392M |
| Trailing P/E | 2205.34 |
| Forward P/E | 4.88 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 8.55 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 469.74% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -3.51% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 1.18 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $153.42 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $102.82 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $518.55 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $0.03 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $1.94 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $776.76 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, SpartanNash Co's weighted average intrinsic value is $776.76, which is approximately 3887.5% above the current market price of $19.48.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe SpartanNash Co is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.