What is SPR.L's Intrinsic value?

Springfield Properties PLC (SPR.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 22, 2025, Springfield Properties PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $43.36 to $146.27 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $74.25 -21.8%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $146.27 +54.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $43.36 -54.4%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $69.20 -27.2%
Earnings Power Value $126.43 +33.1%

Is Springfield Properties PLC (SPR.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $95.00, the stock appears to be fairly valued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Springfield Properties PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.69 1.08
Cost of equity 8.1% 12.5%
Cost of debt 5.5% 6.2%
Tax rate 21.4% 21.8%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.53 0.53
After-tax WACC 6.8% 9.9%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 8.3% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $267 (FY05-2024) to $296 (FY05-2034)
  • Net profit margin expansion from 3% to 3%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 0% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $146 $242M 64.8%
10-Year Growth $74 $156M 29.1%
5-Year EBITDA $87 $171M 50.1%
10-Year EBITDA $90 $175M 36.8%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 10.3%
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.5%
  • Fair value: $43.36 (-54.4% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 12.5% (Low) to 8.1% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 0.0% (Low) to 1.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $43 to $96
  • Selected fair value: $69.20 (-27.2% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $18M
Discount Rate (WACC) 9.9% - 6.8%
Enterprise Value $179M - $258M
Net Debt $68M
Equity Value $111M - $190M
Outstanding Shares 1M
Fair Value $93 - $160
Selected Fair Value $126.43

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $113M
Enterprise Value $181M
Trailing P/E 12.49
Forward P/E 12.84
Trailing EV/EBITDA 7.50
Current Dividend Yield 0.00%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) -100.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.53

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 30% $22.27
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 25% $36.57
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 20% $8.67
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 15% $10.38
Earnings Power Value 10% $12.64
Weighted Average 100% $90.54

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Springfield Properties PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $90.54, which is approximately 4.7% below the current market price of $95.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (3% to 3% margin)
  • Consistent cash flow generation

Given these factors, we believe Springfield Properties PLC is currently fairly valued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.