As of April 4, 2026, SeaSpine Holdings Corp has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $9.54, this represents a potential upside of -1000.5%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -881.9% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -1000.5% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.2% - 6.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $191 million in 12-2021 to $545 million by 12-2031, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 11.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | 191 | 24% |
| 12-2022 | 229 | 20% |
| 12-2023 | 260 | 14% |
| 12-2024 | 289 | 11% |
| 12-2025 | 319 | 11% |
| 12-2026 | 350 | 10% |
| 12-2027 | 390 | 11% |
| 12-2028 | 430 | 10% |
| 12-2029 | 459 | 7% |
| 12-2030 | 495 | 8% |
| 12-2031 | 545 | 10% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -28% in 12-2021 to -18% by 12-2031, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2021 | (54) | -28% |
| 12-2022 | (61) | -27% |
| 12-2023 | (65) | -25% |
| 12-2024 | (66) | -23% |
| 12-2025 | (68) | -21% |
| 12-2026 | (69) | -20% |
| 12-2027 | (76) | -19% |
| 12-2028 | (82) | -19% |
| 12-2029 | (86) | -19% |
| 12-2030 | (92) | -19% |
| 12-2031 | (99) | -18% |
with a 5-year average of $15 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 9% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2022 | 17 |
| 12-2023 | 20 |
| 12-2024 | 23 |
| 12-2025 | 25 |
| 12-2026 | 26 |
| 12-2027 | 29 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 63 |
| Days Inventory | 330 |
| Days Payables | 59 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2022 | (11) | (0) | 5 | 4 | (20) |
| 2023 | (45) | (1) | 23 | 14 | (81) |
| 2024 | (44) | (1) | 26 | 6 | (76) |
| 2025 | (44) | (1) | 29 | 10 | (81) |
| 2026 | (44) | (1) | 32 | 9 | (84) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -881.9% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -1000.5% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is SeaSpine Holdings Corp (SPNE) a buy or a sell? SeaSpine Holdings Corp is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, SeaSpine Holdings Corp (SPNE) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -1000.5%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $9.54.