As of May 27, 2025, Spire Healthcare Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $105.12 to $1254.97 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $284.12 | +48.6% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $236.11 | +23.5% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $105.12 | -45.0% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $105.65 | -44.7% |
| Earnings Power Value | $1254.97 | +556.4% |
Is Spire Healthcare Group PLC (SPI.L) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $191.20, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Spire Healthcare Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Equity market risk premium | 6.0% | 7.0% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.56 | 0.86 |
| Cost of equity | 7.4% | 11.0% |
| Cost of debt | 7.4% | 12.5% |
| Tax rate | 19.0% | 19.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 1.61 | 1.61 |
| After-tax WACC | 6.5% | 10.5% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $236 | $2,219M | 78.9% |
| 10-Year Growth | $284 | $2,418M | 61.6% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $113 | $1,709M | 72.6% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $184 | $2,002M | 53.6% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $518M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.5% - 6.5% |
| Enterprise Value | $4,955M - $7,939M |
| Net Debt | $1,239M |
| Equity Value | $3,716M - $6,700M |
| Outstanding Shares | 4M |
| Fair Value | $895 - $1,615 |
| Selected Fair Value | $1254.97 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $793M |
| Enterprise Value | $2032M |
| Trailing P/E | 31.24 |
| Forward P/E | 24.47 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 6.65 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 107.12% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | -11.05% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 1.61 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $85.24 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $59.03 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $21.02 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $15.85 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $125.50 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $306.63 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Spire Healthcare Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $306.63, which is approximately 60.4% above the current market price of $191.20.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Spire Healthcare Group PLC is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.