As of June 12, 2025, Simon Property Group Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $103.24 to $213.42 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $213.42 | +33.6% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $187.96 | +17.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $145.98 | -8.6% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $167.79 | +5.1% |
| Earnings Power Value | $103.24 | -35.4% |
Is Simon Property Group Inc (SPG) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $159.70, the stock appears to be moderately undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Simon Property Group Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.71 | 0.78 |
| Cost of equity | 7.1% | 9.2% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 6.1% |
| Tax rate | 26.2% | 27.0% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.46 | 0.46 |
| After-tax WACC | 5.8% | 7.7% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $188 | $84,730M | 87.7% |
| 10-Year Growth | $213 | $93,041M | 77.4% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $130 | $65,921M | 84.2% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $157 | $74,706M | 71.8% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $3,787M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 7.7% - 5.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $49,098M - $65,050M |
| Net Debt | $23,373M |
| Equity Value | $25,725M - $41,676M |
| Outstanding Shares | 326M |
| Fair Value | $79 - $128 |
| Selected Fair Value | $103.24 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $52131M |
| Enterprise Value | $75504M |
| Trailing P/E | 25.39 |
| Forward P/E | 25.15 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 16.80 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 509.56% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 16.33% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.46 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $64.03 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $46.99 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $29.20 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $25.17 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $10.32 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $175.71 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Simon Property Group Inc's weighted average intrinsic value is $175.71, which is approximately 10.0% above the current market price of $159.70.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Simon Property Group Inc is currently moderately undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.