As of May 27, 2025, Stephan Co has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $0.81, this represents a potential upside of -14191.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -15670.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -14191.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.3% - 6.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $16 million in 12-2012 to $21 million by 12-2022, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 2.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2012 | 16 | 9% |
| 12-2013 | 16 | 5% |
| 12-2014 | 17 | 5% |
| 12-2015 | 18 | 2% |
| 12-2016 | 18 | 2% |
| 12-2017 | 18 | 2% |
| 12-2018 | 19 | 2% |
| 12-2019 | 19 | 3% |
| 12-2020 | 20 | 4% |
| 12-2021 | 21 | 4% |
| 12-2022 | 21 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -92% in 12-2012 to -62% by 12-2022, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2012 | (14) | -92% |
| 12-2013 | (14) | -84% |
| 12-2014 | (14) | -79% |
| 12-2015 | (13) | -75% |
| 12-2016 | (13) | -70% |
| 12-2017 | (12) | -66% |
| 12-2018 | (12) | -65% |
| 12-2019 | (12) | -64% |
| 12-2020 | (13) | -64% |
| 12-2021 | (13) | -63% |
| 12-2022 | (13) | -62% |
with a 5-year average of $0 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 0% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2013 | 0 |
| 12-2014 | 0 |
| 12-2015 | 0 |
| 12-2016 | 0 |
| 12-2017 | 0 |
| 12-2018 | 0 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 16 |
| Days Inventory | 178 |
| Days Payables | 0 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2013 | (4) | (0) | 0 | 1 | (5) |
| 2014 | (14) | (0) | 0 | (1) | (13) |
| 2015 | (14) | (0) | 0 | (1) | (12) |
| 2016 | (13) | (0) | 0 | 1 | (13) |
| 2017 | (12) | (0) | 0 | (0) | (12) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -15670.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -14191.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Stephan Co (SPCO) a buy or a sell? Stephan Co is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Stephan Co (SPCO) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -14191.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $0.81.