As of June 13, 2025, Supercom Ltd has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $32.34 per share. With the current market price at $11.18, this represents a potential upside of 189.3%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $15.36 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $32.34 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 37.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 189.3% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.3% - 7.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $28 million in 12-2024 to $71 million by 12-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 9.8%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 28 | 4% |
| 12-2025 | 30 | 10% |
| 12-2026 | 36 | 20% |
| 12-2027 | 41 | 12% |
| 12-2028 | 44 | 9% |
| 12-2029 | 49 | 10% |
| 12-2030 | 52 | 6% |
| 12-2031 | 56 | 8% |
| 12-2032 | 61 | 10% |
| 12-2033 | 65 | 6% |
| 12-2034 | 71 | 9% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 2% in 12-2024 to 14% by 12-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 12-2024 | 1 | 2% |
| 12-2025 | 1 | 3% |
| 12-2026 | 2 | 6% |
| 12-2027 | 3 | 8% |
| 12-2028 | 5 | 10% |
| 12-2029 | 6 | 13% |
| 12-2030 | 7 | 13% |
| 12-2031 | 7 | 13% |
| 12-2032 | 8 | 14% |
| 12-2033 | 9 | 14% |
| 12-2034 | 10 | 14% |
with a 5-year average of $2 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 13% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 12-2025 | 3 |
| 12-2026 | 3 |
| 12-2027 | 4 |
| 12-2028 | 4 |
| 12-2029 | 5 |
| 12-2030 | 6 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 192 |
| Days Inventory | 77 |
| Days Payables | 35 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9M/2025 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 2 | (1) |
| 2026 | 7 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1 |
| 2027 | 9 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 2 |
| 2028 | 11 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 3 |
| 2029 | 13 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 5 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 15.36 | 37.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 32.34 | 189.3% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 37.94 | 239.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 52.16 | 366.5% |
Is Supercom Ltd (SPCB) a buy or a sell? Supercom Ltd is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Supercom Ltd (SPCB) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 189.3%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $11.18.