What is SOKM.IS's Intrinsic value?

Sok Marketler Ticaret AS (SOKM.IS) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of June 10, 2025, Sok Marketler Ticaret AS's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.00 to $6.30 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $0.00 -100.0%
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) $1.94 -85.3%
Earnings Power Value $6.30 -52.2%

Is Sok Marketler Ticaret AS (SOKM.IS) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $13.20, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Sok Marketler Ticaret AS's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  2. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 21.4% 21.9%
Equity market risk premium 10.2% 11.2%
Adjusted beta 0.53 0.64
Cost of equity 26.7% 29.5%
Cost of debt 22.2% 23.7%
Tax rate 5.0% 13.4%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.3 0.3
After-tax WACC 25.4% 27.5%

Valuation Methods

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 28.1%
  • Long-term growth rate: 4.0%
  • Fair value: $0.00 (-100.0% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 29.5% (Low) to 26.7% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $2 to $2
  • Selected fair value: $1.94 (-85.3% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $1,365M
Discount Rate (WACC) 27.5% - 25.4%
Enterprise Value $4,972M - $5,368M
Net Debt $1,312M
Equity Value $3,659M - $4,055M
Outstanding Shares 612M
Fair Value $6 - $7
Selected Fair Value $6.30

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $8077M
Enterprise Value $9390M
Trailing P/E 23.01
Forward P/E 551215900000.00
Trailing EV/EBITDA 5.75
Current Dividend Yield 107.10%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 0.00%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.30

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 44% $0.00
Dividend Discount Model (Stable) 33% $0.29
Earnings Power Value 22% $0.63
Weighted Average 100% $2.05

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Sok Marketler Ticaret AS's weighted average intrinsic value is $2.05, which is approximately 84.5% below the current market price of $13.20.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (1% to 0% margin)

Given these factors, we believe Sok Marketler Ticaret AS is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.