What is SNN.L's Intrinsic value?

Sanne Group PLC (SNN.L) Intrinsic Value Analysis

Executive Summary

As of May 22, 2025, Sanne Group PLC's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $65.45 to $675.32 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.

Valuation Method Fair Value (USD) Implied Upside/Downside
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) $284.24 -69.1%
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) $65.45 -92.9%
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) $158.12 -82.8%
Earnings Power Value $675.32 -26.7%

Is Sanne Group PLC (SNN.L) undervalued or overvalued?

With the current market price at $921.00, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.

Understanding Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Sanne Group PLC's intrinsic value, including:

  1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF): Values the company based on projected future cash flows
  2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM): Values the company based on expected future dividend payments
  3. Earnings Power Value (EPV): Values the company based on its current earnings power, assuming no growth

Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.

WACC Component Low High
Long-term bond rate 4.0% 4.5%
Equity market risk premium 6.0% 7.0%
Adjusted beta 0.55 0.59
Cost of equity 7.3% 9.1%
Cost of debt 4.0% 4.6%
Tax rate 24.1% 32.4%
Debt/Equity ratio 0.1 0.1
After-tax WACC 6.9% 8.6%

Valuation Methods

1. Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Valuation

Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:

  • Forecast Period: 5-year DCF and 10-year DCF
  • Terminal Growth Rate: 0.0% (range: 3.0% - 5.0%)
  • Discount Rate: 7.7% (range: 0.0% - 9.3%)

Key Projections:

  • Revenue growth from $194 (FY12-2021) to $467 (FY12-2031)
  • Net profit margin expansion from -4% to 7%
  • Capital expenditures maintained at approximately 2% of revenue
DCF Model Fair Value Enterprise Value % from Terminal Value
5-Year Growth $65 $199M 87.9%
10-Year Growth $284 $555M 80.3%
5-Year EBITDA $41 $159M 84.8%
10-Year EBITDA $113 $276M 60.6%

2. Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:

Multi-Stage DDM:

  • Current payout ratio: 0.0%
  • Stable payout ratio: 90.0%
  • Growth transition: 5 years
  • Cost of equity: 8.2%
  • Long-term growth rate: 4.0%
  • Fair value: $158.12 (-82.8% from current price)

Stable DDM:

  • Stable payout ratio: 70% (Low) to 90% (High)
  • Cost of equity: 9.1% (Low) to 7.3% (High)
  • Long-term growth rate: 3.0% (Low) to 5.0% (High)
  • Fair value range: $(50) to $(174)
  • Selected fair value: $-111.86 (-112.1% from current price)

3. Earnings Power Value (EPV)

EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.

EPV Component Value
Normalized Earnings $91M
Discount Rate (WACC) 8.6% - 6.9%
Enterprise Value $1,062M - $1,320M
Net Debt $92M
Equity Value $970M - $1,228M
Outstanding Shares 2M
Fair Value $596 - $755
Selected Fair Value $675.32

Key Financial Metrics

Metric Value
Market Capitalization $1498M
Enterprise Value $1590M
Trailing P/E 0.00
Forward P/E 922.82
Trailing EV/EBITDA 5.55
Current Dividend Yield 106.76%
Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) 2.19%
Debt-to-Equity Ratio 0.10

Investment Decision Framework

To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:

  1. Forecast Certainty: DCF methods rely on long-term projections, while earnings power value focuses on current normalized earnings
  2. Business Model Alignment: Dividend models are more appropriate for mature companies with established dividend policies
  3. Historical Accuracy: How well each method has predicted fair value historically

Valuation Weight Matrix

Valuation Method Weight Weighted Value
Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) 35% $85.27
Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) 29% $16.36
Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) 24% $31.62
Earnings Power Value 12% $67.53
Weighted Average 100% $236.22

Investment Conclusion

Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Sanne Group PLC's weighted average intrinsic value is $236.22, which is approximately 74.4% below the current market price of $921.00.

Key investment considerations:

  • Strong projected earnings growth (-4% to 7% margin)
  • Conservative capital structure (Debt/Equity of 0.10)
  • Historical dividend growth of 2.19%

Given these factors, we believe Sanne Group PLC is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.