As of June 21, 2025, Senkron Guvenlik ve Iletisim Sistemleri AS's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $0.14 to $4.35 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $3.23 | -86.2% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $3.10 | -86.7% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $1.84 | -92.1% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $4.35 | -81.4% |
| Earnings Power Value | $0.14 | -99.4% |
Is Senkron Guvenlik ve Iletisim Sistemleri AS (SNKRN.IS) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $23.40, the stock appears to be significantly overvalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Senkron Guvenlik ve Iletisim Sistemleri AS's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 21.4% | 21.9% |
| Equity market risk premium | 10.2% | 11.2% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.4 | 0.46 |
| Cost of equity | 25.4% | 27.5% |
| Cost of debt | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| Tax rate | 20.1% | 35.9% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| After-tax WACC | 24.8% | 26.7% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $3 | $34M | 36.5% |
| 10-Year Growth | $3 | $35M | 13.6% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $4 | $45M | 52.7% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $4 | $39M | 22.9% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $1M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 26.7% - 24.8% |
| Enterprise Value | $5M - $6M |
| Net Debt | $4M |
| Equity Value | $1M - $2M |
| Outstanding Shares | 10M |
| Fair Value | $0 - $0 |
| Selected Fair Value | $0.14 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $224M |
| Enterprise Value | $228M |
| Trailing P/E | 19.53 |
| Forward P/E | 31.37 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 6.05 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.03 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $0.97 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $0.78 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $0.37 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $0.65 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $0.01 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $2.78 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Senkron Guvenlik ve Iletisim Sistemleri AS's weighted average intrinsic value is $2.78, which is approximately 88.1% below the current market price of $23.40.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Senkron Guvenlik ve Iletisim Sistemleri AS is currently significantly overvalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.