As of May 22, 2025, St Modwen Properties PLC has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $180.08 per share. With the current market price at $559.00, this represents a potential upside of -67.8%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $154.17 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $180.08 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -72.4% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -67.8% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 5.3% - 8.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $342 million in 11-2020 to $66 million by 11-2030, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately -15.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2020 | 342 | 20% |
| 11-2021 | 37 | -89% |
| 11-2022 | 45 | 22% |
| 11-2023 | 53 | 18% |
| 11-2024 | 55 | 3% |
| 11-2025 | 58 | 6% |
| 11-2026 | 59 | 2% |
| 11-2027 | 61 | 3% |
| 11-2028 | 62 | 2% |
| 11-2029 | 65 | 4% |
| 11-2030 | 66 | 3% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -35% in 11-2020 to -15% by 11-2030, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 11-2020 | (121) | -35% |
| 11-2021 | (11) | -31% |
| 11-2022 | (12) | -27% |
| 11-2023 | (13) | -24% |
| 11-2024 | (12) | -21% |
| 11-2025 | (10) | -18% |
| 11-2026 | (10) | -17% |
| 11-2027 | (10) | -17% |
| 11-2028 | (10) | -16% |
| 11-2029 | (10) | -16% |
| 11-2030 | (10) | -15% |
with a 5-year average of $4 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 11-2021 | 4 |
| 11-2022 | 4 |
| 11-2023 | 2 |
| 11-2024 | 1 |
| 11-2025 | 0 |
| 11-2026 | 1 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 30 |
| Days Inventory | 456 |
| Days Payables | 61 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 6 | (2) | 0 | (324) | 332 |
| 2022 | 8 | (2) | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 2023 | 10 | (2) | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 2024 | 11 | (2) | 1 | (1) | 14 |
| 2025 | 13 | (2) | 1 | 1 | 14 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 154.17 | -72.4% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 180.08 | -67.8% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 60.01 | -89.3% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 81.84 | -85.4% |
Is St Modwen Properties PLC (SMP.L) a buy or a sell? St Modwen Properties PLC is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, St Modwen Properties PLC (SMP.L) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -67.8%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $559.00.