As of December 15, 2025, Super Micro Computer Inc's estimated intrinsic value ranges from $15.42 to $111.65 per share, depending on the valuation methodology applied.
| Valuation Method | Fair Value (USD) | Implied Upside/Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | $111.65 | +245.3% |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | $48.18 | +49.0% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | $57.33 | +77.3% |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | $15.42 | -52.3% |
| Earnings Power Value | $19.44 | -39.9% |
Is Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) undervalued or overvalued?
With the current market price at $32.33, the stock appears to be significantly undervalued.
Intrinsic value represents the "true" worth of a company based on its fundamentals rather than market sentiment. We've employed multiple methodologies to triangulate Super Micro Computer Inc's intrinsic value, including:
The cost of capital is a critical factor in valuation models, representing the required return for investors.
| WACC Component | Low | High |
|---|---|---|
| Long-term bond rate | 3.9% | 4.4% |
| Equity market risk premium | 4.6% | 5.6% |
| Adjusted beta | 0.98 | 1.22 |
| Cost of equity | 8.4% | 11.7% |
| Cost of debt | 4.0% | 4.5% |
| Tax rate | 10.1% | 13.6% |
| Debt/Equity ratio | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| After-tax WACC | 7.4% | 10.2% |
Our DCF model projects cash flows over 5-year and 10-year horizons, with the following key assumptions:
| DCF Model | Fair Value | Enterprise Value | % from Terminal Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Growth | $48 | $29,343M | 78.9% |
| 10-Year Growth | $112 | $67,231M | 66.8% |
| 5-Year EBITDA | $55 | $33,359M | 81.4% |
| 10-Year EBITDA | $96 | $58,168M | 61.7% |
The DDM values a company based on its expected future dividend payments. We used two approaches:
EPV assesses a company's value based on its current normalized earnings power, assuming no growth.
| EPV Component | Value |
|---|---|
| Normalized Earnings | $1,047M |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 10.2% - 7.4% |
| Enterprise Value | $10,313M - $14,060M |
| Net Debt | $579M |
| Equity Value | $9,734M - $13,481M |
| Outstanding Shares | 597M |
| Fair Value | $16 - $23 |
| Selected Fair Value | $19.44 |
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Market Capitalization | $19300M |
| Enterprise Value | $19879M |
| Trailing P/E | 24.34 |
| Forward P/E | 16.37 |
| Trailing EV/EBITDA | 8.10 |
| Current Dividend Yield | 0.00% |
| Dividend Growth Rate (5Y) | 0.00% |
| Debt-to-Equity Ratio | 0.25 |
To determine the most reliable intrinsic value estimate, we weigh each valuation method based on:
| Valuation Method | Weight | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|
| Discounted Cash Flow (10Y) | 30% | $33.50 |
| Discounted Cash Flow (5Y) | 25% | $12.05 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Multi-Stage) | 20% | $11.47 |
| Dividend Discount Model (Stable) | 15% | $2.31 |
| Earnings Power Value | 10% | $1.94 |
| Weighted Average | 100% | $61.27 |
Based on our comprehensive valuation analysis, Super Micro Computer Inc's intrinsic value is $61.27, which is approximately 89.5% above the current market price of $32.33.
Key investment considerations:
Given these factors, we believe Super Micro Computer Inc is currently significantly undervalued with the potential for long-term appreciation based on the company's growth trajectory and financial strength.