As of June 4, 2025, Super Micro Computer Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $94.23 per share. With the current market price at $43.19, this represents a potential upside of 118.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $81.73 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $94.23 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | 89.2% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | 118.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 6.6% - 8.9% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $14989 million in 06-2024 to $24856 million by 06-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.2%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2024 | 14989 | 110% |
| 06-2025 | 16052 | 7% |
| 06-2026 | 17017 | 6% |
| 06-2027 | 17946 | 5% |
| 06-2028 | 18420 | 3% |
| 06-2029 | 19347 | 5% |
| 06-2030 | 20588 | 6% |
| 06-2031 | 21259 | 3% |
| 06-2032 | 22352 | 5% |
| 06-2033 | 23210 | 4% |
| 06-2034 | 24856 | 7% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from 8% in 06-2024 to 15% by 06-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 06-2024 | 1151 | 8% |
| 06-2025 | 1485 | 9% |
| 06-2026 | 1845 | 11% |
| 06-2027 | 2226 | 12% |
| 06-2028 | 2566 | 14% |
| 06-2029 | 2985 | 15% |
| 06-2030 | 3176 | 15% |
| 06-2031 | 3280 | 15% |
| 06-2032 | 3449 | 15% |
| 06-2033 | 3581 | 15% |
| 06-2034 | 3835 | 15% |
with a 5-year average of $62 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 1% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 06-2025 | 86 |
| 06-2026 | 110 |
| 06-2027 | 138 |
| 06-2028 | 169 |
| 06-2029 | 184 |
| 06-2030 | 193 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 61 |
| Days Inventory | 114 |
| Days Payables | 48 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2025 | 421 | 23 | 42 | (116) | 473 |
| 2026 | 2091 | 115 | 176 | 191 | 1609 |
| 2027 | 2525 | 138 | 186 | 574 | 1627 |
| 2028 | 2918 | 159 | 191 | (104) | 2672 |
| 2029 | 3379 | 185 | 200 | 260 | 2734 |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 81.73 | 89.2% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 94.23 | 118.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 31.70 | -26.6% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 46.65 | 8.0% |
Is Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) a buy or a sell? Super Micro Computer Inc is definitely a buy. Based on our DCF analysis, Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) appears to be significantly undervalued with upside potential of 118.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider a strong buy at the current market price of $43.19.