As of May 27, 2025, Smartsheet Inc has a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) derived fair value of $0.00 per share. With the current market price at $56.47, this represents a potential upside of -163.2%.
| Key Metrics | Value |
|---|---|
| DCF Fair Value (5-year) | $0.00 |
| DCF Fair Value (10-year) | $0.00 |
| Potential Upside (5-year) | -151.7% |
| Potential Upside (10-year) | -163.2% |
| Discount Rate (WACC) | 8.4% - 10.5% |
Revenue is projected to grow from $958 million in 01-2024 to $4261 million by 01-2034, representing a compound annual growth rate of approximately 16.1%.
| Fiscal Year | Revenue (USD millions) | Growth |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2024 | 958 | 25% |
| 01-2025 | 1128 | 18% |
| 01-2026 | 1400 | 24% |
| 01-2027 | 1730 | 24% |
| 01-2028 | 2008 | 16% |
| 01-2029 | 2317 | 15% |
| 01-2030 | 2708 | 17% |
| 01-2031 | 3070 | 13% |
| 01-2032 | 3448 | 12% |
| 01-2033 | 3838 | 11% |
| 01-2034 | 4261 | 11% |
Net profit margin is expected to improve from -11% in 01-2024 to -5% by 01-2034, driven by operational efficiency and economies of scale.
| Fiscal Year | Net Profit (USD millions) | Profit Margin |
|---|---|---|
| 01-2024 | (105) | -11% |
| 01-2025 | (101) | -9% |
| 01-2026 | (112) | -8% |
| 01-2027 | (124) | -7% |
| 01-2028 | (127) | -6% |
| 01-2029 | (129) | -6% |
| 01-2030 | (146) | -5% |
| 01-2031 | (161) | -5% |
| 01-2032 | (176) | -5% |
| 01-2033 | (191) | -5% |
| 01-2034 | (206) | -5% |
with a 5-year average of $14 million. Projected CapEx is expected to maintain at approximately 3% of revenue.
Depreciation is based on an average useful life of 5 years for capital assets.
| Fiscal Year | D&A (USD millions) |
|---|---|
| 01-2025 | 17 |
| 01-2026 | 23 |
| 01-2027 | 29 |
| 01-2028 | 37 |
| 01-2029 | 47 |
| 01-2030 | 56 |
Net working capital is expected to increase gradually, with projected changes affecting free cash flow.
| Components | Average Days |
|---|---|
| Days Receivables | 95 |
| Days Inventory | 0 |
| Days Payables | 5 |
| Fiscal Year | EBITDA | Tax | CapEx | Change in NWC | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3M/2025 | (29) | (0) | 8 | 14 | (50) |
| 2026 | (129) | (1) | 39 | 64 | (230) |
| 2027 | (143) | (2) | 48 | 82 | (271) |
| 2028 | (146) | (2) | 55 | 75 | (274) |
| 2029 | (145) | (2) | 64 | 77 | (284) |
| Valuation Method | Fair Price (USD) | Potential Upside |
|---|---|---|
| 5-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -151.7% |
| 10-Year DCF (Growth) | 0.00 | -163.2% |
| 5-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
| 10-Year DCF (EBITDA) | 0.00 | -100.0% |
Is Smartsheet Inc (SMAR) a buy or a sell? Smartsheet Inc is definitely a sell. Based on our DCF analysis, Smartsheet Inc (SMAR) appears to be overvalued with upside potential of -163.2%. The company's strong projected growth in revenue and profitability, coupled with consistent capital expenditure, supports our positive outlook on its intrinsic value.
Key investment drivers include:
Investors should consider reducing exposure at the current market price of $56.47.